Sporttrade could become a sports forecasting and analysis tool
Sporttrade is the premier sports trading platform in the United States.
New Jersey bettors can trade real-time sports bets like contracts, using financial trading strategies rather than hacks to try and beat bettors. Sporttrade’s unique live betting capabilities also offer the potential of a sports prediction and analysis tool.
Sporttrade is unique from traditional sports betting and betting exchanges. Traditional sports betting has bettors who set the odds. On betting exchanges, bettors set their own odds and accept bets from other users. This gives punters a range of odds to choose from, but each set of odds has a set bet limit. So the amount a bettor can bet – and win – depends in part on all the other bettors betting on a specific bet.
On Sporttrade, punters exchange bets ranging from $0 to $99 per contract. Winning bets are paid $100 and losing bets are paid nothing. With this pricing model, Sporttrade doesn’t care about being on the winning side of a bet. It just needs enough users to satisfy bets (Sporttrade has partnered with big companies that buy and sell contracts to ensure customers can make their first trades.)
Sporttrade has this search potential because its transaction price is equal to the probability of winning a bet. Its real-time bettor responses and high availability lend the platform to research sports predictions and analysis. It also does not rely on traditional products sport bets and exchanges need to improve their live betting offerings.
Micro betting and live betting
Every national sports betting brand offers live betting. Odds will change in real time as the outcomes of different bets change in-game. In traditional sports betting, there are often downtimes where bets are locked in when odds are recalculated. This interrupts the live betting experience.
To keep bettors engaged in the game, gambling startups are introducing micro betting. Micro betting involves betting on how the next game will go or how certain players will perform. Even though these bets settle in minutes or seconds, bettors should be careful of ever-changing bets.
“If you’re trying to make micro-bets, you’re bound to commit every few seconds,” said Sporttrade founder and CEO Alex Kane. “I think when it comes to entertainment, you have to give the customer as much flexibility as possible. So it would be like when you went to the movies, but you couldn’t get drunk or really enjoy it because every minute you had to decide what was going to happen next.
Sporttrade users can already bet based on the course of a particular game. If the Broncos miss a game, nothing prevents a Sporttrade user from selling their contracts with the Broncos or buying into the opposing team. Since users react smoothly to the game in real time, Sporttrade does not need to invite its bettors with micro bets.
In contrast, traditional sports betting needs micro paris to rely on their in-game live betting offers. Traditional sports betting requires downtime for recalculation. Micro-betting is a way to improve in-game engagement while recalculation speeds are slowly improving.
“I think there will be a place for that [micro betting], one hundred percent,” Kane said. “But I think it’s probably going to be for the type of bettor who…watches every game…and even then it’s probably going to be tiring for that customer.”
The potential of Sporttrade as a sports forecasting and analysis tool
Sporttrade’s hyper-liquid markets make it an ideal tool for monitoring bettors’ reactions in real time. There are enough trades and prices tight enough that small shifts in punters’ opinion translate into contract price shifts.
“You might have a tight enough market that you actually see a delta [change] next chance to win their division based on what they decided to do…or not,” Kane said. “Whether or not the market agrees with a representative’s decision…for the front office of an organization.
There is definitely value there, [but] it’s more on the research side.
Tracking events that lead to price changes reveals how teams are performing against fan expectations. Prediction markets aren’t the only source of data teams can leverage. However, their potential as research tools is an object of study in all fields, from finance to politics. Sporttrade is an ideal platform to study as a sports prediction market.
“I think coaching decisions and things [like that] could be very interesting, especially towards the end of the half and the end of the match [decisions] whether to go,” Kane said.
A close study of Sporttrade market data could reveal new information that researchers, organizations, and sports analysts could use to better predict match outcomes and analyze team strengths and weaknesses.
Sporttrade also has a wealth of information on when bettors are most engaged in the games. Obviously, interest increases during the game and decreases between games. However, a detailed analysis of bettor activity might find gradients in bettor interest, informing sports broadcasts or in-game entertainment.
The future of sports trading
While Sporttrade was not designed as a prediction market, it is suited to be studied as such. Data deals could be a future revenue stream that supplements the low-margin revenue that Sporttrade derives from commissions on winning bets. Sporttrade’s ability to develop these data agreements will be strengthened after launching the futures markets and generating data on confidence in a team throughout the season.
Sporttrade’s potential in sports is based on its unique trading capabilities and pricing structure. A glance at the prices can reveal the probability of a bet. Tight pricing ensures that small shifts in bettors’ sentiment are reflected in a contract’s new price.
Unlike other prediction markets, Sporttrade is primarily an entertainment product. The political prediction markets, PredictIt and Iowa Electronic Markets, are designed as academic research tools. The event-driven contract exchange, Kalshi, provides financial hedging tools that farmers have used for about a century.
Financial trading of all types relies to some extent on speculators. Speculators are users who treat them as gambling platforms and pump most of the money into these markets. Users who use Kalshi for legitimate hedging purposes owe their reliable payouts in part to speculators.
Since Sporttrade is a gambling platform, it does not face the same difficult questions about balancing gambling speculators and hedging risk or conducting research. If the trading application can launch successfully in several States with legal sports bettingSporttrade could also become a formidable data provider for sports predictions and the research behind them.